By: Joey Krajewski
The Over/Under Podcast every Wednesday at 8pm
In this quick article we will take a quick dive into this weeks full slate of NFL games with a gamblers twist. We're gonna take a look at every single NFL game, and I'll tell you what goes into my mind when I look at the spread, total points, and money line. So buckle up because most of this will probably make absolutely zero sense unless you're a cold blooded degenerate gambler like myself.
Thursday Night Football.
Bills -2.5 @ Rams o/u 52
What an amazing way to kick off the NFL season. I mean these are on paper the two best teams and quite possibly the two best offenses in the league as well as the two best defenses in the league. With that being said I LOVE the over in this game! No matter how good these defenses are the offense will always reign supreme. The StaffGOAT and Josh Allen are going to absolutely light it up, and I could see a 38-35 victory for Buffalo Bills. So I will be rolling with the Bills -2.5 and the over of 52 to kick off the NFL season.
Sunday 1pm games.
Ravens -7 @ Jets
The Jets are absolutely atrocious and this game will not be close. The Ravens are the better team, and will dominate this game from the jump. The only thing that scares with this big of a spread is the Ravens offense still living in the 1970's and they don't believe in passing the football. With that being said though I just think Robert Saleh's head will be way too shiny and bald to figure out a way to get this game to finish within a TD. I will probably buy a half point to get the Ravens at 6.5 favorites and that could very well be my lock of the weekend.
Saints -5.5 @ Falcons
This is such an odd game, in my opinion, because I'm not sure if I like either team. The Falcons will be battling for the worst team in the NFL while that Saints are one of the biggest question marks in the league. While I think the Saints defense should be pretty good the offense with Jameis Winston back, Michael Thomas back, and the addition of Chris Olave this team could be ELECTRIC. I will be riding with the Saints -5.5, but I don't love it.
Pats @ Dolphins -3
I have no clue what to do for this game. I love the Pats and Bill Belichick, but I just think the Dolphins offense with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle is just simply too fast and will look so fast in the Dolphins colors that I think the pats just won't be able to cover them. What scares me is that Tua is a lefty and it looks so stupid and weird when he throws a football that I just never think he'll complete a pass which he obviously will. This will be a complete reverse psychology game where I will hate my bet, but I will be buying another half point, and take the Dolphin's -2.5.
Browns @ Panthers -2
LOL at this week 1 matchup. Of course the freaking Browns will be taking on their former #1 overall pick, and the first QB in almost two decades to bring them back to relevancy. I do think Baker will come into this game way overhyped, and will do exactly what he did for the Browns in every big game he played in... shit down his leg and throw multiple picks. This is the easiest pick of the day: Browns +2. Myles Garrett, and Jadevon Clowney are going to dismantle the offensive line of the Panthers, and cause Baker to be running for his life the entire time, and it's going to be awesome to watch.
Steelers @ Bengals -6.5 o/u44.5
I truly cannot express how excited I am to watch this game live, and the fact it's in Pittsburg is even better. I may be the biggest Joe Burrow d*** rider this weekend, and I'm not be ashamed to admit it. Burrow may throw for 500 yards in this game, and yeah he may only throw slants to his receivers because there is absolutely no way the bengals will be able to block the steelers defensive line. I am not sure who will be able to stop the connection between Burrow and his receivers this season, but it will definitely not happen in Pittsburg. I think the Bengals win this game by two touchdowns, and Mitch Turbisky looks like exactly how he did in Chicago. If you want to get really crazy here like myself HAMMER the over of 44.5 that's just too easy for the bengals who may score every freaking drive.
49ers -6.5 @ Bears
This is such a head-scratcher of a game here with Chicago in the running for worst team in the league, and the 49ers who have been one of the most solid teams in the league just up and switch QBs. I am so blatantly lost on who to pick this will be completely dependent on the head coaches. Kyle Shanahan is a certified offensive genius, but is way too good looking to win a Super Bowl. Lucky for him though first year Bears head coach Matt Eberflus has quite possibly one of the dumbest last names north of the Mason-Dixon Line. With that being said I think you have to go with the 49ers -6.5 here simply based on head coaches.
Eagles -4 @ Lions
I am so confused about the Lions because of Hard Knocks that this game took a lot more thinking than it really needed. The Eagles were a solid team last year, and only upgraded whereas the Lions didn't really do anything besides draft a very fast receiver who won't be able to play till the end of the year. Dan Campbell definitely wins the head coaching battle against Nick Sirianni, but that doesn't hide the fact the Lions still suck. Eagles -4 is the pick don't let Hard Knocks get deep into your head, and make you think too much.
Colts -8 @ Texans
This pick is so easy is scares me to the bone. I think it has to be the Colts -8 here. Even though Matt Ryan is quite possibly the most sackable QB in the league I think with a real offensive line, half decent weapons on the perimeter, and an elite running back will only help Matty Ice out. On the flip side you can absolutely never ever bet on a QB with as long of a neck as Davis Mills. Mills' neck is literally terrifying that he's playing a violent sport. I mean he could literally snap his neck on his shoulder pads every single time he is tackled.
Jags @ Commanders -3
This is just an absolutely atrocious, and disgusting game. Carson Wentz is such a confusing human being that I am so unsure of who I would put my money on. I mean the dude will go out one game and absolutely light it up and look like a Pro-Bowl type of guy, while the next game he won't be able to hit the broad side of a barn, and manage to sprain both ankles in the same play. On the other hand the Jags are just not good at football. I mean this organization managed to mess the number one pick in the draft so I don't hold much stock in them. I think you have to pick the lesser of two evils which I guess is the Commanders -3.
Sunday 4pm Games
Chiefs -4 @ Cardinals
This game is so stupidly easy it almost scares me. It's the Chiefs -4 just take it don't over think it. Pat Mahomes is still the best QB in the league and has the biggest mismatch in the league in Travis Kelce, and the Cardinals just don't care about defense. Kyler Murray is too short and Kliff Kingsbury is too good looking to win this game that it makes it an easy bet.
Raiders @ Chargers -3 o52
This game tickled me for so long that I almost double reverse psychologied myself, and I'm not even sure if that's a real word, but that's exactly what happened. The Raiders secondary is terrible, and Justin Herbert is really really good throwing a football. The Chargers have to be one the best teams on paper, and are so solid at every position that it's crazy to think they are only 3 point favorites at home. I will laying the points with the Chargers and the over of 52.
Packers -1 @ Vikings
This may have been the most difficult game to pick from this weekend. As much as I love Aaron Rodgers, and the Packers losing the best receiver in the game is going to be a gigantic loss for this team. Though the defense is still solid I think it going to take time for the receivers to gain the trust of Rodgers, and that will definitely hinder this offense. The Vikings are one of my sleeper teams this season, and with the new head coach Kevin O'Connell who is an offensive minded guy with a plethora of weapons on the perimeter, and Dalvin Cook in the backfield I think they could be a very good football team. I will be taking the home underdog the Vikings +1 which I'm assuming will turn into a pick 'em on Sunday.
Giants @ Titans -5.5
This is so easy I mean stupid easy. Lay the points and take the damn Titans here. The Giants are just not there yet, and the Titans are a solid squad. Danny Dimes hates being on the field, so I'm sure he will have multiple turnovers. Derrick Henry's gigantic self is back fully healthy, and I wouldn't be surprised if he runs the ball 25+ times this game and just completely slaps around the Giants defense.
Sunday Night Football
Bucs -2 @ Cowboys
Ahh my favorite the good ol’ Dallas Cowboys another year of high hopes and promise without doing a single thing in the offseason besides getting rid of Amari Cooper who's one of the most consistent receivers in the NFL. How this team is projected to such big things every offseason without doing anything the season before, or adding any key players is beyond me. I think the GOAT Tom Brady walks into Jerry World, and puts the Cowboys right back to where the belong IN THE LOSS COLUMN. Buccaneers -2 is so stupidly easy that it's like stealing money from a baby.
Monday Night Football
Broncos -6.5 @ Seahawks
This has to be the dumbest but most typical MNF game I've ever seen. You've got can't do anything wrong Russell Wilson versus his old team the worst roster in the NFL Seattle Seahwaks. The media, and I'm sure the NFL wants Wilson to be good so bad it's appalling. Don't get me wrong the Broncos will be a competitive team, but that's about it. They don't have the defense or the weapons on offense to win any big games, so they will get lollipop games like this on national television to make the world get behind the hype train of the Broncos. I do think the Broncos will cover in this game, but that's not saying much because the Seahwaks are god awful.